Putting aside the substantive merits of Obama's comments about Cordoba House, it's been widely accepted as an article of faith that his decision to weigh in at all, and the manner in which he did it, are certain to be politically catastrophic.
But I just talked with Gallup editor in chief Frank Newport about Gallup's new poll on Obama's comments, which found that 34 percent disapprove, versus only 20 percent who approve. What Newport said suggests it's not clear that this is such a disaster after all. Cliff notes version: The disapproval is overwhelmingly Republican; and a large percentage doesn't even have an opinion.
Yesterday Mark Halperin claimed that "the political and substantive damage will continue until Obama explains his position in detail," adding that "this is a classic case of a politician losing control of his public image." Many other pundits have said similar things.
Thankfully, we now have some actual empirical info on this topic. As Newport noted to me, the new Gallup poll finds that while more disapprove than approve, a huge chunk -- 41 percent -- didn't know enough to form an opinion. "This news event has not penetrated the consciousness," Newport said.
I also asked Newport for a breakdown of the 34 percent who disapprove of Obama's comments. He told me that a majority of them, 54 percent, are Republican, while only a third are independents. "It's hard core Republican conservatives who disapprove strongly of the president's remarks," Newport said.
Now, two important caveats.
Newport noted that the poll showed more intensity of emotion about this issue on the right. "Republicans are more strongly disapproving than Democrats are strongly approving," he said, adding that this should be "of concern to the white House." Of course, that could mirror a dynamic already in place: Conservatives are more juiced up about politics right now than liberals are.
It's also true that the political implications of Obama's comments go beyond how it impacts him. By elevating the issue, Obama ensured that Democrats in tough races across the country will get put on the spot about it, and many Dems are fleeing the issue in a panic. Yet there's no evidence yet that the controversy will make any difference at all in local races.
Bottom line: For all the punditry asserting as fact that Obama's decision to take a stand on the project will inevitably rain political doom upon the White House and Dems, the jury is very much out out on the question of whether this is, you know, true.
from: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2010/08/how_politically_catastrophic_w.html
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